Week 4 Review
Ashville ended up playing out much like every week this season. Three 4-0s and a 4-1. As the weeks go along in the season, we’re still holding out for those “special games” wherein we might actually see two competitive teams play, I don’t know, competitively? The season also takes an unfortunate turn at the ends of this week, but I’ll get into that later.
(Home Team vs Away Team)
Predicted outcome: 4-0 The Kids
Final score: 4-0 The Kids
Match length + Logs: 18:17 // http://logs.tf/1546503
I feel bad for both teams in this contest. We can laugh and joke about the fact that The Kids are walking into another potential perfect season, but you have to believe the draw of high level TF2 is wearing thin.
Is this what the top Plat teams are resigned to? Maybe playing 3 serious matches all season with the rest being an organized version of SOAP DM with a round timer? Perhaps this isn’t the time to get into this rant, but it’s sure getting there.
On the other hand, it’s almost laughable that I have to applaud m|G for at least showing up, as I’m sure some teams would not have done. With the disparity of skill from ranks 1-8 this season, it can’t be pleasurable to know that you’ll have to waste 20 minutes of your time on the way to a nearly winless season.
There’s really not much I can say about this one though. The Kids outfragged m|G almost two times over and at least ended the match in a merciful 18 minutes.
This loss was enough for m|G to decide it wasn’t worth their sanity to continue on for another 3 weeks and have subsequently unreadied.
Predicted outcome: 4-0 #mcm
Final score: 4-0 #mcm
Match length + Logs: No Logs 😦
Not much can be said here. It was an outcome as obvious as any. grapeSquad were still working their way to a “perfect” o-7 season with 0 Match Points, but now with m|G and Jeep dead, they’ll at least get those free wins and 10 Match Points.
#mcm needed this win as a rebound, but they’re on their way into a match against The Kids on Steel which will be the first real test with their new roster. grapeSquad however will get a week break before moving on to face Bv in Week 6, although their playoff chances long since gone.
Predicted outcome: 4-1 dK
Final score: 4-1 dK
Match length + Logs: 24:26 // http://logs.tf/1546499
A-ha! I was right about the score line, but I was wrong about when it would happen. I figured Bv might be able to catch dK napping in the first round, but it turned out it was the first round of the second half with dK perhaps a bit overconfident.
dK pretty much controlled the game for the most part, outfragging Bv by 76 on their way to their 4th straight victory. Success came in the places you’d expect with Bobby, odb, and bo4r topping charts in both frags and damage.
Bv struggled to keep up with the bulk of dK, with the combo having a tough go of things. Despite m66’s DPM he was not able to convert most of it to Frags, with Metawe out-healing the spam. Spades also managed to help out on the flank in the match, despite his butt making me weep, so I call it a boohooty.
As a final note, Meo seems to have found some relative success after some struggles on the flank this season, enjoying the roaming that Ashville lends itself to. If she can keep bringing these kinds of performances, Bv will continue to be favorites for the #3 spot.
Predicted outcome: 4-3 smangs
Final score: 4-0 [››]
Match length + Logs: 24:36 // http://logs.tf/1546428
I’m going to give myself partial credit for this one since I said it as either going to be a close 4-3 or a roll for Fast Forward. Maybe it was just a cop out, who knows?
A number of players on Jeep just weren’t up to snuff, despite the efforts of Carcin, rolling, and smilez.
Fast Forward dominated play in almost every aspect, although giving up a respectable amount of cap time to Jeep in most of the rounds. Despite this, the scoreline will forever read 4-0.
exile went absolutely huge with a 24/16/585 performance completely destroying Jeep in every facet. Strong performances by Cloudshade, Keith, and civ also helped lead Fast Forward to their third victory of the season over a team on the brink of death.
This was a game that if Jeep won, could have shaken up a lot in regards to the 3rd and 4th spot for playoffs, since Bv, #mcm, FF, and Jeep would all still be in the running, but after this, Bv and Fast Forward seem to be lunging ahead towards the finish line. In light of the news as well, Jeep has called it quits on the season, staying true to their ride-or-die (heh) attitude of quitting before they would ever dream of mainclassing.
It’s sad that a roster full of so much talent won’t be able to make waves in a division and league whose talent pool is shrinking, but it bodes well that there is a team in Fast Forward succeeding in Platinum and looking to contest the likes of The Kids and dK in seasons to come.
So the season claims it’s first two (and likely only two) victims this season which actually only reverses one game, which will give a W to grapeSquad, which will be likely inconsequential.
I’ve ranked all eight teams where they would have been had they not dropped from scheduling, but next week they will be removed from rankings, meaning there will only be six.
(Rank, Team, Tag, Change in ranking)
1. Dunning-Kruger Effect v4 (dK) [-]
They drop their first round of the season, but still sit above The Kids in rankings and standings.
m|G, The Kids, [››]
2. The Kids (The Kid) [-]
Some déjà vu. I can literally just copy+paste the same writup from last time.
A win’s a win even if it was against a team that has not been at all impressive. The Kids are likely stuck in 2nd until the dK matchup.
Remaining schedule: #mcm, dK,
3. Chill Penguins (Bv) [-]
Bv lose expectedly to dK but manage to take a round in the process. Fast Forward are hot on their heels and they will square off on Monday on Steel.
Remaining schedule: [››], [♥], #mcm
4. Fast Forward ([››]) [+1]
Fast Forward didn’t it let it be close against Turquoise Jeep and are sitting comfortably in 4th place. Their true test in regards to placement will be coming up on Monday
Remaining schedule: Bv,
5. Man Crush Monday (#mcm) [+1]
#mcm are looking to rebuild after their less-than-desirable start and have worked their way back into the running. However, with Fast Forward’s dominance, it might be too late to mount the comeback.
Remaining schedule: the Kids,
6. Turquoise Jeep Records (smangs) [-2]
Getting 4-0d by Fast Foward definitely was not in their best interest or intentions.
The Jeep has crashed.
[♥], #mcm, The Kids
7. Memento Glory (m|G) [-]
m|G finally drop from the season after an incredibly disappointing 0-4. The rest of their schedule wasn’t too kind either.
dK, [››], [♥]
8. grapeSquad ([♥]) [-]
So, some positives for grapeSquad. Next week they will move from #8 to #6 and they are now going to finish the season at least 2-5. It happens due to no action of their own, but hey, they reap the benefits.
smangs, Bv, m|G
Week 4 Matchups
What a fun week this will be with only six teams remaining, meaning there will only be two matches per week, with the two dead teams having already played eachother.
The good news is that the two matches this week can mean everything for playoff placement, especially Chill Penguins vs Fast Forward.
As a quick note, I will not be giving teams the wins they will get due to bye weeks until that week. The exception is grapeSquad who had a match overturned due to Jeep’s death.
(Home team vs Away team)
Predicted outcome: 2-0 The Kids
As much as I’d like to believe that #mcm has enough in them to take a round, there’s just too much going against their chances in this matchup.
First off, let’s talk about The Kids. They hold the advantage in pretty much every category, with a stronger flank and pick classes. The combos of the two teams are probably the closest, but because of superior coordination, The Kids take this too. Despite their struggles against teams like dK on this map, they are still exponentially more experienced on Steel in high-level play than the majority of #mcm.
This isn’t to say #mcm won’t have some success. Watterson and evil should still be able to get some picks to help their team and the newly reinvigorated combo of #mcm will be able to take advantage of the space they make. This will also however be the first test of the new combo and new flank with a “gimme” versus grapeSquad last week.
The Kids boast a superior roster, top to bottom with coordination and experience to boot. It’s also hard for me to imagine Ender being outplayed on a map where momentum can be completely stymied by clever Engineer play.
#mcm might make it close one of the halves, but The Kids should still take both. The important thing to note is because of #mcm’s low Match Points, not managing to take a round can do a lot to hinder their playoff chances, regardless of the outcome in their match against Bv.
Predicted outcome: 2-1 [››]
This is probably one of the toughest matches to predict this season and as I’m writing this, I’m wondering if maybe I’m making the wrong prediction. The only thing I can hope for is a close game, since there haven’t been too many this season, especially with Fast Forward dominating matches against #mcm and Turquoise Jeep.
Bv has long been undervalued this season, most likely due to their mediocrity in seasons past. Fast Forward has also been undervalued, but because they’re seen as a team of newcomers. I know personally that I’ve been guilty of that.
Keep a close eye on this game as well, because this can go a long way in determining seeding come playoffs time.
I’m not going to go through a full player-by-player comparison however since it seems to generate a bit too much controversy, which is not the goal of these articles.
In regards to the flank, the battle is pretty even. Keith holds the edge over whymeo, but crab_f is definitely showing himself to be some premier talent and doing a lot to keep Bv afloat. Really, what gives Bv the edge here is the DM-heavy, over-aggressive American, who will likely spend a lot of time denying keith and crimson their chances at being game-changers.
The combo advantage however seems a little less decisive, but I’d have to give Fast Forward the edge. Both exile and m66 have been putting up great numbers this season, so I find the Demo matchup a little too close to call, but Paals has been showing a lot of wear this season and hasn’t been the force Bv needs in helping m66 succeed. Civ on the other hand has done just this for exile and will help his combo perform over that of Bv’s. It also helps that Coldster will probably spend more time alive than Gamma who has died 51 times to Coldster’s 38, with only a 5 minute difference in time played in the season.
Finally, the pick classes are pretty even between the two teams as well. Both Sullyy and Blinx are pretty comparable on Sniper, so the edge will really go to the player who can stay alive longer and whose team enables them to peek aggressively and stay safe. The Spies have two completely different playstyles and although Cloudshade has had some more success, Kris18’s stabby-style play can be relatively damaging if Fast Forward doesn’t stay spy aware, but they should be able to keep him in check.
Bv had been very strong on this map in their scrims last season and should come prepared to continue to have some success, but Fast Forward has some momentum gaining and don’t look like they can be stopped just yet. A victory here for FF will mean they will have earned more wins than Bv has ever earned in the regular season in Platinum and a guaranteed playoff berth.
Dunning-Kruger Effect v4 – BYE WEEK, 5-0
grapeSquad – BYE WEEK, 1-4