Week 5 Review
The season end draws nearer with just two more weeks remaining and depending on how things go this week, there may be only one more match necessary to determine the playoff picture.
With only two matches this week, there wasn’t too much to delve into, but alas, here we are.
(Home Team vs Away Team)
Predicted outcome: 2-0 The Kids
Final score: 2-0 The Kids
Match length + Logs: 33:05 // http://logs.tf/1551783
Taking a round off of the Kids here was one of #mcm’s dying hopes at making playoffs and they missed the mark this time around.
The roster instability for #mcm continued after just one encouraging week and likely led to this weak performance on Monday night.
It’s no secret that their combo’s inability to coordinate has been a sticking point for the team all season. #mcm’s thought was that they could resolve this by adding Goldfish in on Demo, but due to unforeseen circumstances, he was unable to play and their previous Demo, Ezrik, was asked to suit up again. Unfortunately for #mcm it went about as bad as their previous losses this season. From what I understand, the poor coordination and communication crept in and severed any chance the team had at mounting a strong performance against one of the best teams this season.
For The Kids, they didn’t need to change up much. They are experts on the map, the gamemode, and have DM to match so they didn’t sweat too much. #mcm capped in about 10 minutes in the first half, but The Kids answered back in just over 5. In the second half, The Kids saw an 8 minute time, but #mcm was unable to cap past 2nd.
There were big performances across the board for The Kids with absolutely no one on their team having a poor game, capped off by players like Vanilla Love, yosh, and Giraffe with monster stat lines.
For #mcm, the game held largely poor stats, save for bunny and Evil who did they best they could for the struggling team. Bunny’s performance was also held back on the flank with akemi’s difficulties to keep up, as he only managed 9 frags and put up less DPM than anyone on his team.
Unfortunately for #mcm, this may have been the last hurrah with the season coming to a close. The Kids are headed into their first challenge of the season while #mcm wait on bated breath to find out if grapeSquad has the ability to upset Chill Penguins.
Predicted outcome: 2-1 [››]
Final score: 2-1 Bv
Match length + Logs: 43:14 // http://logs.tf/1551766
Cast: Vipa, Metawe, + Vryktion: https://www.twitch.tv/metawe/v/96999891
My lord it happened. A close game this season, and one that had some importance about playoffs. Pinch me I must be dreaming.
The match was actually quite short for a full 6 round battle, but Steel is a map that can move quickly between two even teams.
Both teams have put a lot of effort into the season and it shows. Each round, the team who set the time got a little better, and the team defending did so a bit longer. The game started off with Fast Forward setting a disappointing 10 minute time, Bv answered back by torching through their defense in a measly three minutes with the A-B-E push, setting the tone for the match.
Fast Forward came back in the next round though, tightening up their defense and forcing Bv to take the extra time as they capped ABCE. Not to be outdone, and maybe just seeking a little revenge, Fast Forward went for a direct A-B push and did so in 3:11.
The final round came with Fast Forward back on the offensive. Although not a terrible time, going through the alphabet push (ABCDE) in 8 minutes, it was definitely not the round they were hoping for, especially with the weakness in their Defenses exploited earlier by Bv. Opting to go through the same route as their 2nd push, they did so in much better fashion, capping ABCE in about 4:30.
Let’s take a class by class breakdown. Overall the flank battle was even, with the Scout, Soldier, and Pyro for Fast Forward putting up 83 frags and Bv’s with 80, the Damage per minute was pretty even as well, with ~700 overall for Bv to Fast Forward’s ~650. It’s about what we expected, with crab_f putting in the most work from the entire 6 player sample size.
The combo is a little more divisive. Both Demos had similar K/D lines, but m66 absolutely ran off with the damage category, which was not unexpected. civ also outperformed Paals with 7 more frags and just a bit more damage. What’s surprising is the difference between the Medics. Gamma did not have a poor game, but Coldster just seemed to outplay her, with more assists, more ubers (even with pre-game ubers factored in) but pretty even heal totals. Although the differences are minute, and there is a lot that cannot be seen through logs (obviously) Coldster’s ability to be healing targets that were doing work and not being punished for it, leads me to believe he had a stronger game.
As we move down the list, things get a bit more hairy for Fast Forward. Perhaps the underperformance of their pick classes hindered their ability to put forth their best game against Bv. Both sullyy and Cloudshade have been great for Fast Forward this season, but it seems they struggled to keep up in this one.
An extra mention for the oft-forgotten Engineers. Although wax ended up dying a lot more, mainly due to the slight flank advantage of Bv, the two engies managed to end up pretty similar in kills and damage. Chicobo slightly led in kills and wax led in Damage. Also thank you guys for playing the class no one else wants to. We need you around to keep Highlander alive.
Well, as you know only 6 teams remain and the league is in danger of only having 4 teams come Week 7 which would mean only one match would take place with 2 more on the precipice of dying. Here are the oh-so-obvious rankings.
(Rank, Team, Tag, Change in ranking)
1. Dunning-Kruger Effect v4 (dK) [-]
Snooze… Bye-week blues.
Remaining schedule: The Kids, [››]
2. The Kids (The Kid) [-]
The Kids finally have their chance to take the #1 seed in playoffs and in the rankings with their Week 6 match against dK coming up. It’s likely to be the last interesting match of the season until these two square off come Grand Finals time.
Remaining schedule: dK,
3. Chill Penguins (Bv) [-]
Bv keep their rank above Fast Forward, even if nominally so with their close 2-1 win. A win on Monday locks them in as the final playoff team.
Remaining schedule: [♥], #mcm
4. Fast Forward ([››]) [-]
Fast Forward have officially made playoffs since they took a round off of Bv, but they are still chasing Bv for placement and seeding.
5. Man Crush Monday (#mcm) [-]
Some short-lived excitement for #mcm as Goldfish was unable to make the match as well as a couple substitute Demomen they were potentially looking to use. Their season’s fate now lies in the hands of the team who has ranked last for the entirety of the season.
6. grapeSquad ([♥]) [-]
Well grapeSquad gain two placement ranks, but they sure didn’t earn them, which is why their change in rank is still marked as 0. Their season is over so they can only really play spoiler for Bv at this point.
Remaining schedule: Bv,
m|G Turquoise Jeep Records (smangs) [-] Memento Glory (m|G) [-]
Week 6 Matchups
Well hey, the season may be flailing like a fish bouncing desperately for the shore, but Week 6 will actually have some interesting matchups on the way. It also provides a sneak peek of our Season 20 Grand Finals.
(Home team vs Away team)
Predicted outcome: 2-1 dK
** THIS MATCH WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY 10/30 @ 9:00PM EST **
Well, we finally have the match of the season. The two undefeated titans going at it on Borneo to figure out who will get the #1 seed.
This honestly could go either way, because although dK has seemed stronger, The Kids have weapons to answer with in the form of their entire roster.
I think arguments could be made regarding the overall strength of the two rosters, The Kids hold some advantage with split_, nursey, and Ender, whereas there are the less-decisivel like yosh vs bo4r or odb vs Giraffe.
Personally, if I lean more towards The Kids in terms of roster strength, dK answers back with a cohesion that has been hard to beat the past few seasons. It’s brought them to 2* consecutive titles and kept them a notch above their rival team. I don’t see that changing here today.
Borneo is a map that plays like any other Payload. We’ll see the Demomen and Sniper play a huge factor (I mean, it is Highlander) and it will be up to the defending team to transition well between points to not wipe and lose multiple in one push. What makes it interesting is that dK will have overall better pushes, but Ender holds the advantage over Spades, so perhaps some expert Engineer play could stifle some of the aggression.
In regards to flanks, there is a decent amount of room to roam on the map for both Scout and Soldier (Pyro too if they so choose) but the Soldier’s impact can be dampened depending on the push/gun location since so many points are indoors with low ceilings.
In the end, I think dK’s coordination reigns supreme and makes them the favorite for another title bout in Season 20. The Kids would need to be firing on all cylinders to prevent this outcome. If yosh is able to stay alive unpunished and feint is able to make crucial picks consistently along with steady, unhindered aggression from the combo, The Kids could take a victory.
Predicted outcome: 2-0 Bv
So there’s been a lot of forum talk regarding this match and although I have many, many opinions, I’m going to leave it at arms length for the article. I also don’t have much of a desire to express them one-on-one either.
Regardless of what goes down Bv has the victory secured. It honestly wouldn’t matter which 9 players show up on the other side, the only way Bv can lose this is if they completely flop at every corner and make every decision incorrectly.
Bv is much stronger this season than they had in the past and their roster supports that. American playing flank Pyro has lifted the team’s performance, which was already plenty strong due to crab_f’s DM. The combo is in sync with m66 putting out big damage, even if Paals isn’t having the easiest go of things this season. And to round things out, blinx has been a pickup that has proved far superior than SGC was last season.
The other huge advantage that Bv has going into this is that grapeSquad will likely be not scrimming or really even playing much before their match, whereas Bv has been dedicated to practicing all season. It’s really up to Bv to lose this match, as it’s entirely in their hands.
Man Crush Monday – BYE WEEK, 3-3
Fast Forward – BYE WEEK, 4-2